MOOL RAJ
Rivers are more than water, they are lifelines of civilizations, symbols of cooperation, and sometimes, silent weapons of geopolitics. In the picture of Baisaran Valley, Pahalga, a place often described as the “mini-Switzerland of Kashmir, the earth was soaked in blood instead of spring dew. More than 28 innocent tourists were killed in a cold-blooded terrorist attack, an incident that has left the nation stunned and grieving.
As Indian intelligence reports trace the origin of the attack to Pakistan-based terror groups, the Indian government is now actively reconsidering its long-standing commitments to its western neighbor. Among the most serious reconsiderations is the potential revocation of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a landmark agreement that has endured decades of des of hostilities but may no longer survive the weight of bloodshed.
What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?
Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty is a water-sharing pact between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank. It governs the use of the six rivers of the Indus basin:
Pakistan was granted exclusive rights to the three western rivers, Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab. India retained control over the eastern rivers Ravi, Beas, and Satlej.
India is allowed limited, non-consumptive use of the western rivers for purposes like hydropower generation, but cannot divert or store their waters in ways that harm Pakistan’s access. Despite wars and diplomatic breakdowns, the treaty has functioned for over six decades as a rare example of sustained bilateral cooperation.
Why Is India Reconsidering the Treaty Now?
The Pahalgam massacre has deeply shaken the Indian psyche. For many, the killing of innocent civilians, visitors seeking peace in Kashmir’s beauty, has become a tipping point. The Indi an government has expressed a firm stance: terror and talks cannot go hand in hand, nor can terror and treaties.
Citing repeated provocations and a “fundamental change in circumstances, India is reportedly exploring the legal and diplomatic framework reim or suspend quired to unilaterally withdraw from or suspend the Indus Waters Treaty, potentially under Article 62 of the Vienna.
Convention on the Law of Treaties
Why should India continue to honor a treaty that benefits a country allegedly sheltering groups responsible for murdering its citizens? Legal and Diplomatic Complexities.
Any withdrawal or suspension of the treaty would thrust India into complex international legal waters. While India is not permanently bound. By the treaty, unilateral abrogation could attract criticism from global bodies, including the World Bank, which continues to play a facilitating role. Pakistan would likely challenge the move in international courts, potentially invoking the International Court of Justice or seeking arbitration through the Permanent Court of Arbitration.
Such a step could also impact India’s reputation as a rule-abiding global actor, especially at a time when it seeks leadership roles in climate diplomacy, global trade, and multilateral institutions. Consequences of Scrapping the Treaty
1. Humanitarian and Environmental Crisis in Pakistan. Pakistan relies on the Indus system for 90% of its agriculture and drinking water. Disruptions could lead to severe water scarcity, crop failure and urban water crises, sparking public unrest and destabilization.
2. Increased Risk of Military Conflict: Water is emerging as the most contested strategic resource of the century. Any move perceived as weaponizing it could push the already fragile Indo-Pak dynamic to the brink of military confrontation.
3. Global Diplomatic Fallout: India’s action could trigger international pressure. especially from the United States, China,and EU countries, which have interests in South Asian stability. The World Bank may be compelled to step in again to pre vent escalation.
Strategic and Developmental Gains for India On the domestic front, India could accelerate hydropower projects in Jammu & Kashmir and maximize usage of its wa ter entitlements, especially in the Ravi and Beas basins. However, such projects de mand years of planning and face ecological hurdles
5. Unpredictable Precedents Abrogating a treaty upheld during war times may set a precedent for reversing peaceful diplomatic agreements, introducing a new era of transactional geopolitics in South Asia
A Turning Point or a Tactical Pressure Move? Strategists are divided. Some see India’s threat to cancel the treaty as a calibrated signal pressure tactic designed to extract global and regional accountability without resorting to war. Fear it could erode one of the few functioning bilateral agreements between the two nuclear-armed neighbors
Veteran diplomats argue that while justice for Pahalgam must be pursued, dismantling the Indus framework might harm India’s long-term strategic interests more than it hurts Pakistan. Waters of Wrath or Wells of Wisdom?
The Indus Waters Treaty, for all its technical clauses and diplomatic roots, is more than a document; it is a testament to cooperation amid conflict. Yet the bloodshed in Pahalgam has cast a long shadow, and India finds itself at a moral and strategic crossroads.
Will it choose to dismantle the last remaining bridge of diplomacy? Or will it use the treaty as leverage to build a more accountable regional order? Only time and the rivers themselves tell.
